Thursday, September 4, 2008

Oil prices

With the recent pull back in oil, some are talking about prices in the $30's. My forecast is for prices in the $70-$100 range for the next few years, with some spikes over $100. OPEC has been talking about supporting oil prices in the $85-$100 range, and the economics of new technologies like oil shale and existing oil sands extraction don't make much sense when oil goes below $50-$70.
Gas should trade in the $7-$10/MMBTU range, and should be near a bottom now ($7.17). The oil/gas ratio is now over 15; an unsustainable level since a barrel of oil is about 6 million BTUs. By December I expect gas to return to the $10 range.

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